NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is likely to begin shrinking the size of its debt purchase program, intended to prop up economic growth and support the labor market, by September of this year, according to the majority of economists at large Wall Street firms.
Economists at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan specifically cited the government's announcement earlier on Friday of stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs growth for June as a factor in bringing forward their expected timing of the Fed slowing.
Goldman and J.P. Morgan are two of 21 U.S. primary dealers - the large financial firms that do business directly with the Fed - that were polled by Reuters on Friday.
Of 17 dealers who answered a question on the expected timing of a reduction in purchases, 11 called for September, while three said October, two said December and one said it would happen in the first quarter of 2014.
In a similar poll conducted June 19, seven of 17 dealers called for a slowing in September. One dealer in the previous poll had called for the slowing this month, while three said October, one said November while four said December, with one still forecasting the first quarter of 2014.
Friday's poll was conducted after the government said U.S. employers added 195,000 new jobs to their payrolls last month, and revised its count for April and May to show 70,000 more jobs created than previously reported. Economists had been looking for 165,000 new jobs in June.
"With solid job gains through the first half of the year, the recovery appears to be overcoming the worst of the fiscal headwinds now at peak force. Fed officials are likely to keep tentative plans to start scaling back (quantitative easing), probably in September, barring a major upset," said Peter D'Antonio, economist at Citigroup in New York.
The Fed is currently buying $85 billion per month of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and the median of forecasts from 13 dealers in Friday's poll was for buying to initially be scaled back by $20 billion per month. Forecasts ranged from a reduction of $10 billion per month to $28 billion per month.
The median forecast for an initial reduction of $20 billion per month was unchanged from the June 19 poll.
Of 16 primary dealers who answered a question on the timing of the end of the latest bond purchase program, 14 said it would happen on or before the middle of 2014, while two said September 2014. Those results were little changed from the June 19 poll.
Many analysts had been reeling in their forecasts for the timing of the beginning of the end of Fed purchases, after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said at a press conference on June 19 the economy is expanding strongly enough for the central bank to start slowing the pace of its bond-buying stimulus later this year.
Friday's payrolls data added to sentiment that the Fed could slow purchases sooner than originally expected.
"Coming into today, our call for a December first taper was already probably a little underwater, and after today's report we are moving to a call for a first reduction in asset purchases at the September (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting," J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli said in a note to clients.
The median of forecasts from 13 dealers called for the latest round of quantitative easing, known as QE3, to total $1.3 trillion of purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. That was up marginally from a median of $1.255 trillion from 12 dealers polled June 19.
Economists at 13 of 14 dealers forecast the Fed will increase interest rates from the current ultra-low level near zero in 2015, while one said it would happen in 2016.
(Additional reporting by Alison Griswold, Pam Niimi and Luciana Lopez; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
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Insurance Coverage within and outside the country
For your safety and convenience, you should also have applied for medical insurance so that you can be protected spending unallocated money when you find yourself or your family members in emergencies. You should also be aware of the coverage, benefits, and limitations of your policy as things change depending on where you are traveling. If you are only traveling within local destinations, then you should not have too much problems. However, things are different when you are overseas. There will be certain sections in your medical insurance that may not apply due to laws that may prove your plan to be invaluable. Question the maximum capabilities of your medical insurance while traveling so that you can know as to when you will use your travel insurance.
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The days where the Lakers could vastly rely on their poker chips to build championship contending teams will become a distant memory this offseason.
The Lakers can offer Dwight Howard the most money of any NBA team, a five-year deal worth $118 million as opposed to a four-year deal worth $87.6 million for everyone else. But that may not convince Howard he would look best in purple and gold once he becomes an unrestricted free agent today at 9 p.m.
The Lakers have a 25-year, $5 billion deal with Time Warner Cable that paid the team around $120 million in the first year, a partnership Lakers president Jeanie Buss said "exceeded beyond our wildest expectations." That lucrative contract, however, won't convince the Lakers to go on a shopping spree this offseason for reasons beyond giving the NBA about $50 million of those earnings in revenue sharing.
More punitive luxury taxes for high-spending teams will kick in during the 2014 offseason when a crop of superstars such as LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Paul George and John Wall enter the free-agent market. That's why the Lakers have echoed the need to keep "financial flexibility." "There are teams that have tried to buy championships, but it doesn't work that way," Buss said recently at a Time Warner Cable Media sponsored event.
"It's not always about the team with the highest payroll."
The Lakers discovered this past season that money doesn't always buy happiness. They shelled out nearly $100 million in player salaries and $29.6 million in luxury taxes after acquiring Howard from Orlando, Steve Nash from Phoenix and keeping Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Metta World Peace.
A swift coaching change from Mike Brown to Mike D'Antoni, overlapping injuries and competing coach and player agendas contributed to the Lakers losing in a first-round playoff sweep to the San Antonio Spurs. If the Lakers maintained a similar payroll next season, they would owe about $78.2 million in additional taxes. For the 2014-15 season, that figure would climb to $85 million because of the so-called "repeater tax."
What happens if Howard ignores the billboards the Lakers put up around Los Angeles pleading him to stay?
"Whether Dwight's here or he's not, what we can do to improve the team remains the same," Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak said. "It's not like if one player is not here, we have more resources in having that money to sign another player."
Should Howard walk away without the
$20.5 million the Lakers would owe him next season, they still would approach a $79.6 million payroll. Larry Coon, an independent NBA salary cap expert who works as an IT director at UC Irvine, estimated the league will set this year's tax threshold at around $71.5 million.
Any team that spends above that apron can't land any free agent via sign-and-trade, giving the Lakers no shot to grab Chris Paul, Monta Ellis, Josh Smith or Andre Iguodala. Such high-spending teams next season can't acquire players under contract through a sign-and-trade. Luxury-tax penalty teams also will have a smaller mid-level exception in both years (three instead of four) and salary ($3 million instead of $5 million).
"The worst position you can be in this league is to have multi-year contracts that are big numbers on players who are just OK players," Kupchak said. "It insures you're in the middle of the pack and have no way to move up."
The Lakers vow not to fall into that trap.
Only Nash remains under contract beyond next season for $9.7 million. Even if Howard returns and Bryant plays beyond next season, the Lakers would have enough cap space in 2014 to sign a max-contract player.
On Saturday, the Lakers waived backup guard Chris Duhon, who will receive only $1.5 million of the $3.75 million he would have earned this season.
The Lakers also can use the amnesty provision sometime between July 10-16 to waive either Bryant, Gasol, World Peace or Steve Blake. Pencil Bryant out even if Coon estimated the Lakers would save $55 million in luxury taxes and fall under the apron. The Lakers would experience a public relations nightmare. They also estimate Bryant will return from a left torn Achilles tendon sometime next season.
The amount the Lakers would save in luxury taxes by waiving Gasol ($40 million), World Peace ($30 million) or Blake ($15 million) still wouldn't bring them under the luxury tax threshold. Even if the Lakers use this tool, they can only sign a player at the mini mid-level exception at $3.2 million or at the veteran's minimum at $1.4 million.
"If it's a younger player, he's probably not going to take the veteran's minimum," Kupchak said. "If he does, he's probably not good enough to play.
"As much as I'd like to sit here and say we're going to get young, athletic players that can really shoot the ball at the veteran's minimum when they're 20to 25 years old, that's probably not realistic."
Indeed, the Lakers will encounter plenty of spending restrictions this offseason. They also face uncertainty without the late owner Jerry Buss.
The Lakers still maintain they will find a way.
"As much as they try to make things more fair, they can never take away what the Lakers have with our history, experience and our brainpower in our front office," Jeanie Buss said. "We'll always have an advantage."
Tobacco control policies stop people from smoking and save livesPublic release date: 30-Jun-2013 [ | E-mail | Share ]
Contact: Karen Mallet km463@georgetown.edu Georgetown University Medical Center
WASHINGTON Tobacco control measures put in place in 41 countries between 2007 and 2010 will prevent some 7.4 million premature deaths by 2050, according to a study published in the Bulletin of the World Health Organization today.
The study is one of the first to look at the effect of measures since the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) was established in 2005. Jt demonstrates the success of the WHO FCTC in reducing tobacco use and, thus, saving lives.
"It's a spectacular finding that by implementing these simple tobacco control policies, governments can save so many lives," said lead author David Levy, PhD, professor of oncology at Georgetown Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center in Washington.
In 2008, WHO identified six evidence-based tobacco control measures that are the most effective in reducing tobacco use, and started to provide technical support to help countries fulfill their WHO FCTC obligations.
Known as "MPOWER," these measures correspond to one or more of the demand reduction provisions included in the WHO FCTC: Monitoring tobacco use and prevention policies, Protecting people from tobacco smoke, Offering help to quit tobacco use, Warning people about the dangers of tobacco, Enforcing bans on tobacco advertising, Promotion and sponsorship, and Raising taxes on tobacco.
The authors did a modeling exercise and projected the number of premature deaths that would be averted by 2050 through the implementation of one or more of these measures.
The study focused on the 41 countries (two of which are not Parties to the WHO FCTC) that had implemented the demand reduction measures at "the highest level of achievement," that is, at a level proven to attain the greatest impact.
These countries represented nearly one billion people or one-seventh of the world's population of 6.9 billion in 2008. The total number of smokers in those countries was nearly 290 million in 2007.
Of the 41 countries, 33 had put in place one MPOWER measure and the remaining eight had implemented more than one..
"In addition to some 7.4 million lives saved, the tobacco control policies we examined can lead to other health benefits such as fewer adverse birth outcomes related to maternal smoking, including low birth weight, and reduced health-care costs and less loss of productivity due to less smoking-related disease," Levy said.
If these high-impact tobacco control measures were implemented even more widely, millions more smoking-related deaths would be averted, said Douglas Bettcher, MD, director of the department of non-communicable diseases at WHO.
"Tobacco use is the single most preventable cause of death in the world, with six million smoking-attributable deaths per year today, and these deaths are projected to rise to eight million a year by 2030, if current trends continue," Bettcher said. "By taking the right measures, this tobacco epidemic can be entirely prevented."
The WHO FCTC was developed in response to the globalization of the tobacco epidemic. Since the WHO FCTC came into force in 2005, 175 countries and the European Union have become parties to it. It is the most rapidly and widely embraced treaty in United Nations history, covering almost 90 percent of the world's population.
###
About the Bulletin of the World Health Organization
The Bulletin of the World Health Organization is one of the world's leading public health journals. It is the flagship periodical of WHO, with a special focus on developing countries. Articles are peer-reviewed and are independent of WHO guidelines.
About Georgetown University Medical Center
Georgetown University Medical Center (GUMC) is an internationally recognized academic medical center with a three-part mission of research, teaching and patient care (through MedStar Health). GUMC's mission is carried out with a strong emphasis on public service and a dedication to the Catholic, Jesuit principle of cura personalis -- or "care of the whole person." The Medical Center includes the School of Medicine and the School of Nursing & Health Studies, both nationally ranked; Georgetown Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, designated as a comprehensive cancer center by the National Cancer Institute; and the Biomedical Graduate Research Organization, which accounts for the majority of externally funded research at GUMC including a Clinical and Translational Science Award from the National Institutes of Health.
[ | E-mail | Share ]
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AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.
Tobacco control policies stop people from smoking and save livesPublic release date: 30-Jun-2013 [ | E-mail | Share ]
Contact: Karen Mallet km463@georgetown.edu Georgetown University Medical Center
WASHINGTON Tobacco control measures put in place in 41 countries between 2007 and 2010 will prevent some 7.4 million premature deaths by 2050, according to a study published in the Bulletin of the World Health Organization today.
The study is one of the first to look at the effect of measures since the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) was established in 2005. Jt demonstrates the success of the WHO FCTC in reducing tobacco use and, thus, saving lives.
"It's a spectacular finding that by implementing these simple tobacco control policies, governments can save so many lives," said lead author David Levy, PhD, professor of oncology at Georgetown Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center in Washington.
In 2008, WHO identified six evidence-based tobacco control measures that are the most effective in reducing tobacco use, and started to provide technical support to help countries fulfill their WHO FCTC obligations.
Known as "MPOWER," these measures correspond to one or more of the demand reduction provisions included in the WHO FCTC: Monitoring tobacco use and prevention policies, Protecting people from tobacco smoke, Offering help to quit tobacco use, Warning people about the dangers of tobacco, Enforcing bans on tobacco advertising, Promotion and sponsorship, and Raising taxes on tobacco.
The authors did a modeling exercise and projected the number of premature deaths that would be averted by 2050 through the implementation of one or more of these measures.
The study focused on the 41 countries (two of which are not Parties to the WHO FCTC) that had implemented the demand reduction measures at "the highest level of achievement," that is, at a level proven to attain the greatest impact.
These countries represented nearly one billion people or one-seventh of the world's population of 6.9 billion in 2008. The total number of smokers in those countries was nearly 290 million in 2007.
Of the 41 countries, 33 had put in place one MPOWER measure and the remaining eight had implemented more than one..
"In addition to some 7.4 million lives saved, the tobacco control policies we examined can lead to other health benefits such as fewer adverse birth outcomes related to maternal smoking, including low birth weight, and reduced health-care costs and less loss of productivity due to less smoking-related disease," Levy said.
If these high-impact tobacco control measures were implemented even more widely, millions more smoking-related deaths would be averted, said Douglas Bettcher, MD, director of the department of non-communicable diseases at WHO.
"Tobacco use is the single most preventable cause of death in the world, with six million smoking-attributable deaths per year today, and these deaths are projected to rise to eight million a year by 2030, if current trends continue," Bettcher said. "By taking the right measures, this tobacco epidemic can be entirely prevented."
The WHO FCTC was developed in response to the globalization of the tobacco epidemic. Since the WHO FCTC came into force in 2005, 175 countries and the European Union have become parties to it. It is the most rapidly and widely embraced treaty in United Nations history, covering almost 90 percent of the world's population.
###
About the Bulletin of the World Health Organization
The Bulletin of the World Health Organization is one of the world's leading public health journals. It is the flagship periodical of WHO, with a special focus on developing countries. Articles are peer-reviewed and are independent of WHO guidelines.
About Georgetown University Medical Center
Georgetown University Medical Center (GUMC) is an internationally recognized academic medical center with a three-part mission of research, teaching and patient care (through MedStar Health). GUMC's mission is carried out with a strong emphasis on public service and a dedication to the Catholic, Jesuit principle of cura personalis -- or "care of the whole person." The Medical Center includes the School of Medicine and the School of Nursing & Health Studies, both nationally ranked; Georgetown Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, designated as a comprehensive cancer center by the National Cancer Institute; and the Biomedical Graduate Research Organization, which accounts for the majority of externally funded research at GUMC including a Clinical and Translational Science Award from the National Institutes of Health.
[ | E-mail | Share ]
?
AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.
BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian rebels in the northern province of Aleppo on Monday threatened to seize two Shi'ite Muslim villages that back President Bashar al-Assad unless they surrendered to the opposition.
Activists say both Nubl and Zahra villages had been reinforced by Assad's allies in the increasingly sectarian war, among them fighters from Iran and Lebanon's powerful Shi'ite guerrilla group, Hezbollah.
"We announce our intention to liberate Nubl and Zahra from the regime and its shabbiha (pro-Assad militia), and from the Hezbollah and Iranian elements," the rebels said in an Internet video.
The 27-month-old conflict, which pits mostly Sunni insurgents against Assad, from an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam, has already killed more than 100,000 people and driven 1.7 million Syrians to seek refuge in neighboring countries.
Assad's forces, spearheaded by Hezbollah, have made a number of gains since they seized the border town of Qusair last month. There have also been heavy clashes in Aleppo and surrounding districts, fuelling expectations that Assad aims to re-establish control of Syria's largest city.
On Sunday rebels shot down a helicopter close to Nubl, which activists said had been carrying supplies to the villages. Authorities in Damascus said they were taking Education Ministry employees to supervise school exams. Seven employees and the helicopter crew were killed, they said.
A video released by activists a few weeks earlier showed an army officer apparently recruiting Shi'ite villagers in Zahra and Nubl to form fighting units to support the army against the rebels.
"PREVENT A SINGLE DROP OF BLOOD"
"In order to prevent a single drop of blood from being spilled and to find a peaceful solution, we have set the following conditions," the video statement by the rebels said.
Among the demands were the surrender of Assad's forces and their weapons, followed by a power sharing deal between the locals and the rebels.
"If there is no response (to rebel demands for surrender) there will be a major military operation on those two villages," the statement said.
The sectarian nature of the conflict has set regional Sunni Muslim powers - notably Gulf Arab states and Turkey - against Assad's Shi'ite Iranian and Hezbollah allies in a deepening proxy war on Syrian soil.
Deputy U.S. Secretary of State William Burns, speaking at the end of a visit to neighboring Lebanon, condemned Hezbollah's military intervention in Syria.
"Despite its membership in the Lebanese government, Hezbollah has decided to put its own interests and those of its foreign backers above those of the Lebanese people," Burns said.
"We condemn in the strongest terms Hezbollah's actions in Syria. They ... stand in direct violation of Lebanon's disassociation policy (from Syria) and place the future of Lebanon at risk."
Hezbollah's role in Syria, along with Sunni Islamist fighters smuggled over the border to fight for the Syrian rebels, has exacerbated sectarian tensions in Lebanon which is still scarred by its own 1975-1990 civil war.
Fighting has broken out in the Mediterranean cities of Tripoli and Sidon, while rockets have been fired at a Hezbollah district of southern Beirut and in the Bekaa Valley.
Saudi Arabia, which has accelerated armed support for the rebels according to Gulf sources, urged the European Union on Monday to arm Syrian rebels without delay.
Riyadh and its partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council also called on the United Nations Security Council to meet to prevent a massacre in the central city of Homs, where Assad's forces have been waging an assault on rebel-held districts.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported heavy army bombardment and clashes with rebel fighters for a third day in the contested city, which sits on an axis connecting Damascus to the heartland of Assad's minority Alawite sect in the hills overlooking the Mediterranean.
It said neither side appeared to be gaining any ground.
July 5
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Public release date: 30-Jun-2013
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